Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Published 7:20 AM MT
The Morning Call
A 1–100 rating on the trading day ahead. Above 55 leans up, below 45 leans down, 45–55 is flat or mixed. Ratings are never revised.
42
Outlook Rating
Downside bias — expect a down to mixed day.
Why today
- Hormuz escalation — oil surging. Two tankers on fire in the strait after hitting naval mines; Houthi-claimed strikes on Saudi energy and airports. Hormuz crude flows collapsed to ~8.5M bpd vs >20M last week. Brent +0.5–1.5% to ~$110–111 (highest since May), WTI +2–3.7%.
- Asia tech weakness spilling into US futures. KOSPI −3.7 to −4.3% overnight on chipmakers (neocloud Elice plunged 32% on its market debut); Nikkei −1.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures −0.6 to −0.8% premarket.
- Futures red + earnings event risk. S&P 500 futures −0.2 to −0.3%, Dow flat to fractionally down. Netflix reports after the close today (options imply a ~10% move); Meta and Tesla both report tomorrow; SpaceX reports today too. Traders position rather than chase.
- December hike odds ticking hawkish. CME FedWatch: December hike ~94% (up from ~89%), October hold ~82–84%. Fed blackout — no speakers all week, so no dovish offset.
- Offsets: yields easing, fear ebbing. 10Y easing −2 to −4 bp to ~5.11% premarket; VIX fell −7.75% Monday to 18.44; the tech bounce's advance-decline (XLK +69.01) shows real buying under the rebound.
Data snapshot
| Measure | Reading |
|---|
| Treasury 2Y | 4.776% ▼ |
| Treasury 5Y | 4.94% (prior close) |
| Treasury 10Y | 5.111% ▼ |
| Treasury 30Y | 5.430% ▼ |
| VIX (Monday close) | 18.44 ▼ (−7.75%) |
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | ▼ −0.2% premarket |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | ▼ −0.6% premarket |
| Dow futures (YM) | ~flat to fractionally down premarket |
| Gold | ~$4,115 ▼ |
| Bitcoin | ~$81,400 ▼ |
Prior-day closes (Mon Oct 19): Dow 51,961.61 (−0.08%), S&P 500 7,691.92 (+0.42%), Nasdaq 26,371.59 (+0.89%).
How the call did
Judged at the close. See the End of Day Update →